ECOI holds the International Conference on Global Diplomacy and the Future of Gaza

Report by the Directorate for International Academic Cooperation–

Considering that developments in Gaza—beyond their legal and humanitarian dimensions—are among the most significant geopolitical events shaping the dynamics of the current international network system, the international conference on "Global Diplomacy and the Future of Gaza" was organized by the ECO College of Insurance (ECOI) at ATU in the online format, featuring distinguished experts from multiple countries.

In a part of this event, Dr Alexander Kornilov, professor of International Relations at Lobachevsky University, Russia, analyzed Russia’s stance on Gaza. He stated that Russia’s foreign policy toward Gaza revolves around regional stability, the return and settlement of Palestinian refugees, the implementation of a two-state solution, condemnation of Israel’s aggressive policies, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied territories. He also emphasized that given Israel’s disregard for international institutions, particularly the United Nations, the current ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is highly fragile, with an increased likelihood of regional tensions and continued Israeli military aggression.

In another presentation, Dr Dušan Proroković, Associate Professor of International Relations and Director of the Eurasian Studies Center in Serbia, delivered a speech entitled "The Multipolar World Order and Regional Security in the Middle East," arguing that global systemic transitions and the emergence of a multipolar order are inherently linked to regional security dynamics. He noted that developments in Ukraine and the ongoing tensions between Russia and the West significantly impact the security and balance of power in the Middle East. He further highlighted that conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iran are interconnected, influencing each other in shaping the regional security framework.

Dr Igor Metiov, Associate Professor of International Trade at the Financial University of Russia, then discussed the emergence of a new order in the Middle East. He outlined several possible scenarios for the Syrian conflict, including the escalation leading to territorial fragmentation, de-escalation with early political stabilization, limited conflict reduction with gradual reconstruction, and large-scale de-escalation leading to sustainable development. According to Dr Metiov, the first scenario—escalation and territorial fragmentation—is currently the most probable one.

He further examined the prospects of Iran-Russia military cooperation in the event of heightened tensions between Iran and the West. Other key points he raised included:

• Economic cooperation between Russia and Iran is unlikely to be a priority until at least 2025, given the ongoing negotiations between the West, Iran, and Russia regarding Ukraine;
• Russia might adopt a neutral stance on Iran’s nuclear ambitions if external hostilities against Iran persist;
• Iran’s collaboration with Russia under a strategic partnership agreement could increase if Western and Turkish policies in Syria continue to undermine the interests of both countries.

Dr Ermaghan Guzkaman, Professor and Head of the Department of International Relations at Beykent University, Turkey, addressed the challenges of the Gaza ceasefire agreement. He highlighted several factors making the truce highly fragile, including the inefficacy of international institutions, such as the United Nations Security Council, Israel’s dominant position in regional conflicts, the asymmetry in power between the conflicting parties, and the deepened US-Israel alliance during the Trump administration.

He concluded that, given these challenges, the ceasefire agreement is unlikely to hold, and cyclical conflicts—similar to past Gaza crises—are expected to persist.

Dr Rouhollah Nasrollahi, Assistant Professor of Asian Studies at the ECO College of Insurance, examined three key Israeli elite perspectives on governing Gaza:

• The far-right Israeli approach, advocating for further occupation and resettlement of Gaza,
• The establishment of an international security force, led by the United States and a so-called moderate Arab state like Jordan or Morocco,
• The creation of a buffer zone near Israeli settlements, maintaining Israeli military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor.

Conversely, he outlined three major Hamas perspectives on governing Gaza, including the formation of a Palestinian unity government, inclusive of all factions; establishment of a local administration governed by Gaza’s technocrats; and a return to pre-war conditions with Hamas retaining central authority.

Dr Nasrollahi then concluded that, given the current geopolitical landscape, a lasting peace in the region remains out of reach in the near future. According to him, Hamas's most viable scenario for Gaza’s governance is the re-establishment of its pre-war authority, positioning itself as the dominant force in the region.