حانیه قاسمی

Focusing on Iran’s oil-dependent economy, the present study examines the impact of fluctuations in oil revenues on the general price level under varying intensities of economic sanctions. To this end, a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model was employed as one of the regime-switching approaches, while the sanctions intensity variable was quantified using fuzzy logic techniques. The analysis utilizes time-series data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), oil revenues, and the exchange rate of Iran over the period ۱۹۹۴–۲۰۲۴. The estimation results indicate that the relationship between oil revenue fluctuations and the exchange rate with the general price level is nonlinear, and the presence of a threshold level for sanctions intensity is statistically confirmed. This finding implies that sanctions alter both the magnitude and direction of the effects of oil revenues and exchange rate movements on the general price level. Consequently, adopting uniform policy measures across all sanction regimes proves ineffective. It is therefore essential to design policy packages tailored to the degree of sanctions intensity in order to stabilize the general price level and enhance the economy’s resilience.