مهدی رهبرگنجه

Abstract

Global trade has undergone numerous changes in recent years. Russia, Brazil, Australia, and Canada are among the largest countries exporting their resources to other nations. Conversely, China, and to a lesser extent, India, serve as the primary importers of resources for manufacturing purposes.

China, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aims to not only sell its products in consumer markets but also to bring back resources from countries along the trade route with Europe. This process is set to increase China's influence in the countries participating in the BRI. Simultaneously, the land corridors of the BRI facilitate the tra  ortation of resources from countries along the route to China without the need for sea routes.

The International North-South Tra  ort Corridor (INSTC) connects India to landlocked countries in Central Asia, the Caucasus, as well as Russia and Europe. This corridor allows China to access resources from the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea without having to navigate the Straits of Hormuz, Malacca, and Taiwan.

Notably, not only India but also Japan, Southeast Asian, and African countries can directly reach the heartland by utilizing the Chabahar and Abbas ports, bypassing multiple countries. The transit time for goods through this corridor is significantly shorter compared to other routes.

An examination of Iran's geographical location and the corridor routes of both BRI and INSTC reveals their interconnectedness.

The conflict in Ukraine has led to a surge in global energy, food, and tra  ortation costs, underscoring the importance of fast, secure, cost-effective goods tra  ortation within the shortest possible time frame. The INSTC holds the potential to offer Russia and its beneficiary countries, including India, an avenue for low-cost, high-speed tra  ortation of food and energy resources.

Iran, as a Rimland country (an Amphibian power), has the potential to move away from a negative balance policy—neither Eastern nor Western—and revert to a positive balance policy, reminiscent of its approach in the ۱۹۶۰s. Simultaneously, Iran can re-establish diplomatic relations with Western nations and the region, reemerging as the historical transit hub of the world.

Iran should pursue a path that establishes direct connectivity to China via northern Afghanistan, where the majority of the population consists of Tajiks, Hazaras (Shia), and Uzbeks. This strategic approach would create a Persian corridor in contrast to the Turkish corridor desired by Turkey. This corridor would not only provide land access to western China and northern India but would also position itself at the epicenter of the transfer of goods, passengers, energy, and data.